快猫短视频

IF THE British National Health Service seems to be on the edge of chaos,
that鈥檚 because it probably is. An analysis of surgical waiting lists has
revealed that the NHS behaves like complex chaotic system, following similar
natural laws to earthquakes and road traffic.

鈥淎n intriguing property of waiting lists is that they have resisted the
changes introduced into the NHS over the past few years,鈥� says Marios
Papadopoulos, a neurosurgeon at Hurstwood Park Neurological Centre in
Sussex.

This is a characteristic of systems said to be 鈥渙n the edge of chaos鈥�. They
are too complex for us to understand in terms of their individual parts, though
we can describe how the systems behave as a whole. They operate at the maximum
possible efficiency, and resist changes by rearranging their component parts
until they settle down as before.

Papadopoulos decided to see if the NHS could self-organise in this way. When
he plotted the logarithms of waiting times from 15 surgical units from around
the country against the quarterly change in waiting times over a three-year
period he got a straight line鈥攁 characteristic signature of chaotic
systems. 鈥淚t鈥檚 not proof of a state of chaos, but it鈥檚 highly suggestive,鈥� he
says.

If he鈥檚 right, then any small changes to the NHS鈥攆or example,
government plans to increase the number of consultants by four per
cent鈥攚ill probably have no effect on waiting times. The system will simply
compensate, he says, until waiting times are just as long as before. GPs may
simply refer more patients, or consultants may feel they can spend more time
with them.