鈥淭his year the incidence of cases pretty much mirrors last year,鈥� says
epidemiologist Azra Ghani of Imperial College, London. 鈥淭he figures show that
the epidemic doesn鈥檛 appear to be worsening, she says. Reports suggesting that
the number of new cases is accelerating were based on the contrast between older
figures. By the end of August 1999, six cases had been reported, but the same
period in 2000 saw 19 cases. This year the number is 17. James Ironside of the
CJD Surveillance Unit in Edinburgh told the British Association conference last
week: 鈥淭he increase has varied between 20 and 30 per cent over the last four
quarters.鈥� But he was referring to figures for 1999 and 2000.
A total of 106 cases of the fatal brain disease have now been identified in
Britain. Predictions by Ghani and her colleagues for the eventual scale of the
tragedy range from a few hundred to 140,000. Ghani told 快猫短视频:
鈥淲e haven鈥檛 done an update this year yet, but I don鈥檛 expect it to change
dramatically.鈥� However, it is still too early to say if the vCJD epidemic has
reached its peak, she says.
Ironside highlighted a dramatic north-south divide in cases in Britain, with
the north having nearly double the rate
(see Graphic). The most recent analysis
shows 2.71 cases per million people in Scotland and the north of England,
compared with 1.47 per million in Wales and central and southern England. People
in the north probably ate more products containing mechanically recovered meat,
he says.
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