SPACE science under George W. Bush looks set for tough times following the
announcement of the US budget 鈥渂lueprint鈥� for 2002 last week. The 1.4 per cent
budget increase proposed for NASA is dwarfed by cost overruns on the
international space station. As a result, programmes will have to be cut. The
space station, a mission to Pluto, a probe to sample the Sun鈥檚 corona and the
X-33 space plane are likely victims.
The final budget won鈥檛 be ready until next month and will then be the subject
of months of wrangling in Congress. But NASA鈥檚 1.4 per cent increase for next
year鈥攋ust $0.2 billion to bring the total to $14.5
billion鈥攚ill not go far when the space station has overspent by around
$1 billion this year and predictions point to a similar overrun in 2002.
At this rate, the total cost of the station will far exceed the $25
billion ceiling set by Congress last year.
The blueprint only hints at where the axe may fall, but advocates of
different programmes are already drawing up battle plans. Foreign space agencies
that collaborate with NASA, especially on the space station, are watching
nervously. 鈥淣one of the budget cuts are firm and final,鈥� says Jurg Feustel of
the European Space Agency. 鈥淓verything is really in discussion.鈥�
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To control the space station budget, Bush wants to abandon plans to build the
four-person living module, a propulsion module to reposition the station and a
vehicle capable of bringing seven people back to Earth. That would end
construction of the American 鈥渃ore鈥� in 2003, leaving the station able to support
only three astronauts.
A crew of three is needed simply to keep the station running, so that will
leave no one free to do any science. 鈥淭here are key astronaut interactions that
are required鈥� to perform many life science experiments, says Nick Bigelow of the
University of Rochester in New York state, head of a NASA advisory panel on
fundamental physics research. A small crew won鈥檛 have the time to do them.
Other projects could be cancelled completely, such as the Solar Probe mission
to sample the outer regions of the Sun, which has already overrun its budget.
NASA cancelled the Pluto-Kuiper Express last year, also because of cost
overruns. But chances to survey Pluto are rare, so academic groups pressurised
NASA to consider plans for a new cheaper mission. This now looks uncertain,
although the Senate Appropriations Committee last week told NASA to ignore
Bush鈥檚 directive to kill the call for new Pluto proposals. 鈥淭his cancellation of
missions is very worrisome,鈥� says Louis Friedman, director of the Planetary
Society. 鈥淭he whole process is crazy, trying to take programme action on a
budget that鈥檚 not revealed.鈥�
A definite high-profile casualty is the X-33 space plane. NASA has so far
spent $900 million on this potential replacement for the shuttle. 鈥淥ur
technology has not yet advanced to the point that we can successfully develop a
new reusable launch vehicle that substantially improves safety, reliability, and
affordability,鈥� admits Art Stephenson, director of NASA鈥檚 Marshall Space Flight
Center in Huntsville.
Instead, Bush is boosting NASA鈥檚 Space Launch Initiative fund by 64 per cent
to $475.6 million in search of other successors to the shuttle. Details
are vague at best. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 think anybody knows what this new initiative is,鈥�
says John Pike, a space policy expert and director of GlobalSecurity.org, based
near Washington DC.
One of the few bright spots in the blueprint is a call for a 鈥渕ore robust
Mars exploration programme鈥�. NASA says this might enable it to move forward the
date for a sample-return mission.