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ATHLETES striving to run faster, jump higher or throw further should not look
to scientists for help, say exercise physiologists.

The 20th century saw a dramatic improvement in the overall ability of top
athletes. The four-minute-mile 鈥渂arrier鈥� was shattered and gymnasts now perform
routines undreamed of twenty years ago.

But the biggest reason for past improvements probably had nothing to do with
science, according to Will Hopkins of the University of Otago in New Zealand. He
says it was purely a matter of more people participating, making it more likely
that exceptional athletes would be discovered. 鈥淚t鈥檚 a statistical effect,鈥�
Hopkins says. 鈥淭he bigger the sample you take, the more extreme you can expect
the results to be.鈥�

Even today鈥檚 improved training can鈥檛 all be credited to science. For example,
the strategy of tapering off exercise before big events was actually pioneered
by coaches who discovered it through trial and error, according to Joel M.
Stager of Indiana University in Bloomington.

Science can take credit for improvements in nutrition that have helped nudge
up athletic performances, says Carl Foster, an exercise physiologist at the
University of Wisconsin at La Crosse. Researchers predicted that loading up
carbohydrates before endurance events would aid performance, a strategy later
adopted by athletes.

But Foster is sceptical about whether science can continue to help improve
training and nutrition regimes. He points out, for instance, that lab tests that
measure maximal oxygen consumption鈥攁 key fitness indicator鈥攈ave a
margin of error of about 5 per cent, while the difference between a gold medal
and a bronze can be as little as 1 per cent.