ECONOMISTS welcomed last week鈥檚 Nobel prize announcement as confirming the
rise of their discipline as a real science. The work of James Heckman and Daniel
McFadden鈥攚hich has been used to assess everything from environmental
clean-ups to job-training programmes鈥攁llows economists to measure
accurately the impact of the choices people make in life. 鈥淎pplications in
economics can get lost, but these two are at the forefront of empirical
testing,鈥� says Oliver Linton of the London School of Economics.
Economics is often criticised for its inability to use standard scientific
techniques such as placebos or control groups. But economists still want to
judge how economic factors change people鈥檚 lives.
One of the big problems is that researchers often find it hard to get hold of
an unbiased sample that accurately represents the underlying population. In the
1970s, James Heckman of the University of Chicago suggested new statistical
methods for testing theories in a way that removes this bias. 鈥淏efore Heckman,
people ignored selection biases completely,鈥� says Michael Kidd at the University
of Aberdeen, 鈥渁nd their equations were biased as a result.鈥�
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Daniel McFadden at the University of California shares the 拢625,000
prize for his theory of choice, which allows economists to design surveys which
people will answer consistently. The theory has been used to assess people鈥檚
preferences regarding major public projects, such as the clean-up after the 1989
Exxon Valdez oil spill in Alaska and the design of the Bay Area Rapid Transit
system, centred on San Francisco.
McFadden told 快猫短视频 that he and Heckman were in the same
business of putting economics on a sound scientific basis. 鈥淚 put my odds of
winning the Nobel Prize at 1000 to 1, so I was surprised and very pleased.鈥�
Linton says it is well deserved. 鈥淗eckman is plugged into everything at every
level of detail and his and McFadden鈥檚 scholarship is astounding.鈥�