ROAD traffic will regularly grind to a halt and train services will
increasingly be disrupted as a result of global warming, a scientist at
Britain鈥檚 Meteorological Office said last week. Anthony Astbury told a
conference organised by Britain鈥檚 Transport Research Laboratory at Crowthorne,
Berkshire, of the havoc to come for road and rail travellers over the next
century.
The average temperature of the world is now 0.8 掳C higher than it was in
1900. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change expects the temperature to
rise by a further 3 掳C by 2100. As the world warms up, extreme weather will
become more common. 鈥淭hings will gradually get worse,鈥� said Astbury. 鈥淲e鈥檙e
already seeing the first changes.鈥�
In Britain, rain and snow will come in short sharp bursts. Although the total
rainfall won鈥檛 change a lot, downpours will replace drizzle. Snowfalls will be
less frequent but heavier. Falls such as the one that closed the M6 motorway for
36 hours in December 1990 will become more common, said Astbury. But the
disruption is unlikely to last long. In 1990, 鈥渢he snow disappeared in two
days,鈥� he said.
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Trains will be held up by the wrong kind of ice鈥攁 change from the
notorious excuse of 鈥渢he wrong kind of snow鈥�. There will be fewer dry, frosty
winter mornings, but more nights when rain and melted snow freeze on the
conductor rails.
Heavy rain will also cause problems. The Met Office expects the number of
days when more than 25 millimetres of rain falls to increase by 250 per cent,
causing flooding and landslides. 鈥淟andslips could badly affect railways,鈥� said
Astbury. And with the ground waterlogged, trees are more likely to be brought
down by high winds, damaging overhead power supplies.
Astbury says that lightning will become common throughout the year in
Britain, instead of being a summertime phenomenon. A spokesman for Railtrack,
which owns Britain鈥檚 rail infrastructure, told 快猫短视频 that it
has already noticed this. 鈥淟ast year was the worst ever for lightning strikes,鈥�
he says. In 1999, lightning caused four times the delays to passengers as
previous years. Railtrack has set up a lightning task force to find ways of
preventing power surges caused by strikes to overhead wires and conductor rails,
which bring the trains to a halt.
The Highways Agency says it does not yet know what measures it will take to
protect traffic on Britain鈥檚 roads.
The warmer weather will disrupt transport systems throughout the world. In
the snow belt of the US and in Russia, says Astbury, the temperature now stays
below freezing from November to March. 鈥淚t is quite easy to drive on compacted
snow if you have the right equipment, such as snow chains,鈥� he says. But warmer
weather will melt and freeze the snow several times during the winter, replacing
compacted snow with hazardous black ice.
Transport is one of the key sources of the carbon dioxide emissions that are
warming the world. The irony isn鈥檛 lost on Astbury. 鈥淭he climate bites back,鈥� he
observed.