HERE鈥檚 a sobering thought for the new millennium: over the next 15 years, the
International Space Station鈥檚 controllers can expect at least one 鈥渓oss of crew
尘别尘产别谤鈥�.
Futron, a management consultancy near Washington DC, has released the first
results of its attempts to quantify for NASA the risks the station鈥檚 crews will
face. Its 鈥渓oss of crew member鈥� category includes serious illness leading to the
evacuation of an astronaut, as well as deaths.
Futron鈥檚 preliminary calculations, which the company admits are crude,
considered the risks for a station crewed by three astronauts, half way through
construction, and extended this to cover a 15-year period. In reality, of
course, the size of the space station, and the number of crew, will change.
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Experts have been badgering NASA to finish a full risk assessment for the
space station. And while they are pleased that the agency is getting round to
it, some question the details of Futron鈥檚 analysis. The consultancy suggests
that accidents inside the station are a greater risk to the astronauts than
space walks. This a surprise, given the unprecedented amount of space-walking
needed to put the space station together.
Futron also calculates that the chances of losing the entire station in any
8-month period lie between 1 in 200 and 1 in 500鈥攎eaning there鈥檚 a 5 to 10
per cent chance of disaster over 15 years. But its calculations suggest that, if
this happens, there is a 93 per cent probability that a micrometeorite impact
will be the cause. Futron assumes just a 2 per cent chance that fires,
explosions or collisions between spacecraft would be to blame.
鈥淚鈥檓 struck by how different it is from the experience on Mir,鈥� says A.
Thomas Young, formerly president of the aerospace giant Lockheed Martin.
鈥淭hey鈥檝e had no basic problem with micrometeorites, but they鈥檝e had problems
with fires and crashes.鈥�