NO less an agency than the CIA has just concluded that many countries are not
prepared for the millennial computer crisis. Computer breakdowns abroad are
likely 鈥渢o cause or exacerbate humanitarian crises鈥� worldwide, the CIA now
warns.
Now that may not be news to the so-called Y2K watchers. But the CIA may be
the first to see silk where the rest of us see a sow鈥檚 ear. Come December, an
agency analysis predicts: 鈥淪ome foreign governments and businesses will look to
the United States and its better prepared infrastructure to overcome Y2K
problems abroad.鈥� Specifically, says the agency: 鈥淲e expect to see `safe
havening鈥� of financial assets, routing traffic through US computer and
telecommunications networks to avoid local bottlenecks, using US transportation
facilities to move international trade, and calls on the US military to
intervene in humanitarian crises. 鈥�
Gee, maybe Y2K will make some money for Americans. After all, it was the
little pig that built his house of bricks that didn鈥檛 get eaten by the big bad
wolf. However, one might question the CIA鈥檚 command of the subject after reading
the section warning that many countries鈥攊ncluding Egypt, India and
Indonesia鈥攚ill have an especially hard time with computer crashes 鈥渋n the
middle of winter. 鈥�
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SPEAKING of the CIA, the spooks apparently were spooked by the outbreak of
what was thought to be a West Nile virus in the New York area earlier this year.
Not wanting to be accused of being asleep at the switch if a bioterrorist were
to unleash a deadly microbe on an unsuspecting population, the spy guys brought
their investigative machinery to bear.
There were some confusing circumstances in the disease outbreak. What first
appeared to be an outbreak of St Louis encephalitis virus鈥攁 well-known
pathogen in this country鈥攕uddenly became West Nile virus, a related but
heretofore unknown virus in this country. Add to that a speech that Saddam
Hussein once gave mentioning West Nile virus as a possible agent for biowarfare,
and, hey presto, the CIA is on the case.
After a month or more of investigating, the CIA declared that the West Nile
outbreak was not the work of terrorists. And that鈥檚 rather curious, too, because
the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is not so sure. That鈥檚 not
to say that CDC officials are claiming the outbreak was the work of terrorists.
After all, there are a number of reasonable explanations for how the virus got
here鈥攆or example, someone infected in a recent outbreak of the virus in
Russia could have flown to New York. But from an epidemiological point of view,
there are some questions that remain unanswered. Many birds died in the New York
outbreak, something that hasn鈥檛 happened in outbreaks of West Nile virus. CDC
scientists would like to know why. They鈥檇 also like to know whether the virus
was transferred from bird to humans, or vice versa. So the CDC researchers are
continuing to analyse the virus, and they concede it鈥檚 possible that they will
find evidence in the viral genome of intentional tampering. Then we would really
have something to worry about.
In the meantime, as this column goes to press the latest word from the
experts is that the virus is 鈥淲est Nile-like鈥�.
