THE BIGGEST chunk of time being spent in Congress over the looming millennium
bug has absolutely nothing to do with date-sensitive computer programs,
鈥渆mbedded鈥� chips, vulnerable power grids or possible air-traffic control
disasters. It has everything to do with lawyers.
The House of Representatives, after much wrangling with the White House and
lawyers鈥� groups, passed a bill designed to stem the tide of lawsuits expected
from computer snafus come 31 December. It wasn鈥檛 easy. The White House
threatened to veto the bill, claiming that pro-business groups in Congress only
wanted to protect their members鈥� from people suing them for software that goes
鈥渒ablooie鈥�. Trial lawyers, a species well-represented among members of Congress,
would have none of that, claiming that Mr and Mrs American Consumer would be
victimised by software makers who might nonchalantly dump Y2K-buggy products on
the market and walk away from the ensuing chaos.
The business community has been winning this tug-of-war, in part by
brandishing experts鈥� opinions that the millennium bug will generate the biggest
wave of lawsuits in American history鈥攏o small threat in a country already
awash with litigation.
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In the meantime, every week brings new reports that the nation鈥檚 power
plants, airlines, banks and businesses are meeting or beating deadlines for
squashing Y2K bugs. Y2K experts are backing away from the dire predictions of
disaster they made only a few months ago. With the year not even half over, it
appears that the only ones left to ring alarum bells next December will be
lawyers looking for clients.
鈥淭HERE鈥橲 no use crying over spilt milk.鈥� 鈥淚f at first you don鈥檛 succeed, try,
try again.鈥� 鈥淏etter luck next time.鈥� As a society, we in the US have had to come
up with strategies for dealing with failure. No one likes to deal with failure,
but its inevitability makes a good coping strategy prudent. Indeed, some might
argue that the US鈥檚 global dominance comes from an iron determination to cope
with failures, and then overcome them.
The Pentagon has what can only be called a very curious approach to dealing
with failure: pretend it never happened. As any psychiatrist will tell you,
denial isn鈥檛 just a river in Egypt.
A recent example of this 鈥済ood news or bust鈥� approach comes from the way that
Pentagon officials described the results of a recent test of the Army鈥檚
experimental Theater High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system. The test was
designed to see if an interceptor rocket could slam into a moving target. It
couldn鈥檛. 鈥淐lose, but no cigar,鈥� or 鈥淎 miss is as good as a mile,鈥� spring
immediately to mind.
But over at the Pentagon, the word for the day was 鈥渘othing succeeds like
success.鈥� Box after box on the performance score sheet was checked 鈥渟uccess鈥�,
for example: 鈥淟aunch Command Message Processed鈥� (the rocket took off), 鈥淣ominal
THAAD Energy Management Steering (TEMS) performance鈥� (the fuel burned), 鈥淣ominal
software performance until telemetry loss鈥� (the onboard computers worked, at
least for a while). Just to prove that the Department of Defense hasn鈥檛
completely lost touch with reality, the box for 鈥淏ody-to-body intercept of
target鈥� was not checked.
Putting a brave face on this latest 鈥渟uccess鈥� is probably a good idea, since
the defence department has spent nearly $4 billion on a missile intercept
system that has yet to hit a moving target. And there are plenty of aphorisms to
pull out at a time like this. 鈥淓very dark cloud has a silver lining.鈥� 鈥淚t鈥檚
always darkest before the dawn.鈥� A few more 鈥渟uccessful鈥� missions, and the best
advice to the Pentagon will be: 鈥淭he last one to leave should turn out the
濒颈驳丑迟蝉.鈥�
THE ARMY isn鈥檛 the only one having problems with rockets at the moment. An
Air Force Titan IV rocket failed (there鈥檚 that nasty word again) to deliver a
military communications satellite into its intended geostationary orbit. Then, a
few days later, the second stage of a Delta rocket shut down after only one
second, leaving a commercial communications satellite in an equally useless low
Earth orbit.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration can read the tea leaves.
The agency announced that it was delaying the launch of a new weather satellite
until someone could give a good explanation for why American rockets keep
failing.
America鈥檚 problems are particularly embarrassing given the fact that last
month, a refurbished Russian intercontinental missile launched a British
satellite into orbit without a hitch. Now let鈥檚 see. Our economy is booming, the
Russian economy is a shambles. Their rockets go up. Ours don鈥檛. What鈥檚 wrong
here?