BRITAIN could have led the world in developing the Internet and computer
games if the government had listened to the advice of a former editor of New
快猫短视频 three decades ago. But his vision was too far-sighted even for
Harold Wilson鈥檚 Labour administration, which championed 鈥渢he white heat of
迟别肠丑苍辞濒辞驳测鈥�.
In 1968, Nigel Calder, editor of 快猫短视频from 1962 to 1966, was
commissioned by the Central Advisory Council for Science and Technology to
forecast the future as part of a wider brainstorming exercise. His predictions
have just been released under the rule that keeps many British government papers
secret for 30 years.
Calder鈥檚 forecasts were based on a series of articles published by New
快猫短视频 in the mid-1960s. Computer games will become 鈥渁 major pastime鈥�,
he told the council. And he predicted that the linking up of computer networks
and telecommunications鈥攖he Internet in all but name鈥攚ould provide
鈥渕assive computing power on tap鈥�.
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Calder also warned that pollution and drug use would become 鈥渢he biggest
cause of death in the rich countries鈥�. But one key forecast was completely
wrong. A famine that he expected to devastate Asia in the mid-1970s never
materialised, because of improvements in agricultural productivity.
Other predictions have not yet come true, although in some cases Calder may
simply have underestimated the time needed for change. He thought that traffic
gridlock would lead 鈥渢o a crucial political judgment that the automobile is
obsolescent鈥�, and concluded that the 鈥減hasing out of the motor car and road
construction will already have begun by 1980鈥�.
Calder鈥檚 central argument was that the shape of things to come depends not
just on technology but also on political decisions. Unfortunately for the
British computer industry, Wilson and his scientific advisers did not share
Calder鈥檚 vision of a wired, computer-gaming future.
His forecasts were discussed by the advisory council in February 1968. The
government鈥檚 chief scientist, Solly Zuckerman, said it was 鈥渁n interesting and
provocative paper鈥濃�攁n assessment that Calder now says consigned his paper
to footnote status. 鈥渀Provocative鈥� is civil service speak for `we are not going
to do anything about that鈥�.鈥�