COUNTRIES violating the international ban on biological weapons could be
caught out by a new Internet database that will highlight unusual outbreaks of
disease.
The 1975 UN Biological Weapons Convention, which bans all military use of
biological agents, has more than 150 signatories. Yet intelligence sources in
the US estimate that at least a dozen of these countries have covert biowar
programmes.
The convention is very difficult to police, in part because most toxins have
peaceful uses. 鈥淭here isn鈥檛 any biological weapons material I am aware of that
doesn鈥檛 also have a legitimate use,鈥� says Al Zelicoff, an expert on biological
warfare programmes at Sandia National Laboratories in New Mexico. The botulism
toxin, for example, is used as a muscle relaxant in some medical treatments.
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Disease outbreaks caused by accidental leaks of the microorganisms used in
bioweapons production may provide the best indication of a treaty violation.
Epidemiologists can distinguish such mishaps from natural outbreaks if they know
enough about the strains involved and the patients鈥� histories. But currently
such sleuthing can take years. For example, conclusive evidence that a 1979
anthrax epidemic in Ekaterinburg, Russia, started with a leak from a military
factory emerged only this year
(This Week, 7 February, p 5).
To speed the detective work, Zelicoff has set up a database on the Net to
which doctors will be able to post details of local disease outbreaks. Changes
in disease patterns should show up as they happen. Patient surveys included in
the doctors鈥� reports will allow epidemiologists to work out the most likely
source of an outbreak.
To demonstrate the idea using data on a pathogen not linked to bioweapons,
three hospitals in New Mexico and one in the formerly secret Russian military
research city Chelyabinsk-70 have arranged to post details on cases of hepatitis
C.
Although some rogue states may ban their doctors from taking part, Zelicoff
expects the public health benefits will entice clinics in most countries to
participate. Most disease outbreaks reported on the database will be unrelated
to biological weapons. But these data will help identify disease hot spots as
they appear, making outbreaks easier to control. 鈥淚t will be difficult for any
country to resist taking part,鈥� Zelicoff predicts.
Zelicoff hopes eventually to hand his database over to an international body
such as the WHO. 鈥淎s it begins to expand, he will need WHO鈥檚 help,鈥� agrees David
Heymann, who directs the WHO鈥檚 emerging diseases division in Geneva.
The WHO currently maintains a disease reporting network which connects large
clinics, mostly in capital cities, by e-mail and telephone. Zelicoff says his
system will have greater reach by extending to doctors working in smaller,
regional clinics.
Epidemiologists say that between 2000 and 10 000 clinics worldwide would need
to become involved for the network to be truly effective.