THE strawberries are overpriced and the British players are destined always
to be gallant losers. But that鈥檚 where the truth ends as far as Wimbledon
clich茅s are concerned, say Dutch academics who have analysed scoring
patterns from four successive years鈥� play at the world鈥檚 most prestigious tennis
tournament.
Jan Magnus and Franc Klaassen, experts in economic statistical analysis at
Tilburg University, have analysed nearly 90 000 points from 481 matches played
at Wimbledon between 1992 and 1995. Their work has given the truisms of tennis a
real pounding, and should give the television pundits covering this year鈥檚
tournament pause for thought.
Magnus and Klaassen have found that players are not more likely to fluff a
point immediately after serving a double fault. And though new balls may be
faster, they don鈥檛 offer the server a clear advantage. Nor is it true that the
player who serves first is more likely to win a set.
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鈥淭he inspiration came from my irritation at the outpourings of the so-called
experts on TV,鈥� says Magnus, a keen fan and player as well as a
statistician.
One of the most frequently expressed maxims says players are more likely to
lose a service game straight after breaking an opponent鈥檚 serve鈥攑erhaps
because they relax a little or rest on their laurels after breaking. The figures
dispel this idea. If anything, players are slightly more likely to hold their
own service game after breaking their opponent. 鈥淚n the game following a break,
it is not true that the winner takes it a bit easier and the loser tries a bit
harder. Apparently what happens is just the opposite,鈥� says Magnus.
A couple of popular conceptions, at least, are backed by the new analysis.
Champions, the Dutch researchers say, seem to have a winning mentality. Most
noticeably, the better a player is, as measured by world ranking, the less
affected he or she is by what鈥檚 happened while playing the previous point. And
it seems that real champions play their best tennis at the most crucial points
in a match.
鈥淔or me this is the most interesting finding,鈥� says Magnus. 鈥淭he commentators
will say that鈥檚 obvious and that it鈥檚 something they鈥檝e said all along鈥攂ut
then most things they鈥檝e been saying haven鈥檛 turned out be true.鈥�
Magnus says he is happy to offer his statistical expertise to players who ask
for it. One world-ranked Dutch player approached him a couple of years ago for
help. His analysis showed that she was more likely to win a point if she did not
serve at full speed. 鈥淚 told her to hit her first serve a little less hard,鈥� he
says. 鈥淏ut she didn鈥檛 like it. She said she had to listen to her coach instead.鈥�