Washington
POLICY makers preparing for next month鈥檚 climate conference in Kyoto, Japan,
are sounding like the American soccer team before a big match against Brazil or
Germany. Frankly, just getting through the game without being completely skunked
will be considered a victory.
It鈥檚 a familiar line, especially before international summits鈥攍et鈥檚 not
get our hopes up, folks. We hear this from negotiators just returned from the
penultimate climate conference in the German capital, who are anything but 鈥�
Bonn vivant鈥�. The chances of modifying the American position鈥攍owering
carbon dioxide emissions to 1990 levels by 2012鈥攕eem as likely as turning
back El Ni帽o. The rest of the industrialised world wants more action
sooner. Meanwhile, the US views Europe鈥檚 position as an empty promise that no
country will ever live up to. That belief is unlikely to change with members of
Congress already promising to shoot down a treaty that might slow the
economy.
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In the language of diminished expectations, we hear expressions such as: 鈥淎t
least it鈥檚 a start,鈥� and 鈥淚t will get the ball rolling.鈥� And we鈥檙e told that
while we won鈥檛 do much to slow global warming before our children take over,
we鈥檒l be encouraged to be . . . uh, better citizens. We鈥檒l spend more on
alternative forms of energy, electric cars, fuel cells and emissions trading
schemes for industrial polluters. The latest research from the UN鈥檚 climate
experts is not likely to provide much more incentive. The figures suggest that
adopting the most ambitious greenhouse cutbacks now on the table would barely do
more to curb global warming than the least ambitious plan. Some may ask, why
bother at all? Perhaps we鈥檒l just have to wait for the Four Horsemen or the Ten
Plagues, or maybe a few submerged cities, before anything changes.
THERE are only a few things you can be absolutely certain about in this life.
Death and taxes are usually proposed as inevitabilities, although between
biotechnology and Congressional revisions to the tax code, we may have to look
for new ones.
How about 鈥淣ASA and cost overruns鈥�? Sure, the brave Pathfinder made it to
Mars on time and on budget. But consider the International Space Station (ISS).
When opposition to the station was mounting in Congress because of the
$10 billion price tag, NASA officials scampered up to Capitol Hill to
assure legislators that although the price was admittedly high, the costs were
capped, so there would be no surprise requests for cash in the future.
But then came 鈥渧ariance at completion鈥� (VAC). Apparently, Boeing, the prime
contractor for the American components of the ISS, presented NASA with a
$600 million VAC. Add to that another $100 million or more that
NASA says it needs to keep the Russians as partners and suddenly it looks like
that cap isn鈥檛 fitting too well. So far, NASA has been able to rob Peter to pay
Paul, taking money from the shuttle and science programmes to keep the ISS on
track, but now NASA officials say that unless Congress helps out with more
money, the project is in trouble.
Veteran NASA observers on Capitol Hill are not surprised by this. Space
hardware is always cheaper when it鈥檚 on paper than when it鈥檚 actually built. And
with the first elements of the ISS set for launch next year, it鈥檚 hardly likely
Congress will pull the plug on the project. Legislators may grumble, but odds
are they鈥檒l pay up鈥攁dding to the likelihood that taxes will remain an
inevitability.
THE Chinese President Jiang Zemin left some indelible footprints during his
visit here last month. For some, they were indelibly red. The unrepentant
communist leader parried criticism of his treatment鈥攕hooting, not to put
too fine a point on it鈥攐f protesters at Tiananmen Square with platitudes.
The visit brought together people who normally don鈥檛 speak to each
other鈥攏amely, the Christian conservatives and the human rights advocates
of the left. The Bible squad told President Bill Clinton not to do business with
the Chinese because their government is said to persecute China鈥檚 Christians.
The human rights groups oppose child labour and political repression.
The two groups might as well have demanded paisley paint for the Great Wall.
One in every four people on the planet is Chinese. That makes it the Great Well
of consumers for the 21st century. Make no mistake about it, behind American
policy is American business. What the US sees in China is the Great Mall.
Zemin even got the green light to buy nuclear power plants. By the middle of
the next century, China could be the world鈥檚 leading nuclear power generator.
Well, at least we won鈥檛 have to worry about global warming.