EUROPE鈥檚 farmers have little incentive to stay honest. An analysis of the European Commission鈥檚 use of satellite imagery to catch farmers who are fraudulently claiming agricultural subsidies has found that the programme is doomed to failure.
Under the European Union鈥檚 Common Agricultural Policy, large subsidies are paid to farmers growing certain crops, such as cereals, pulses and linseed. But some farmers claim subsidies when they are growing less heavily subsidised crops, or even when their fields are left fallow. To catch the cheats, European Commission officials examine images taken by the French SPOT satellites, which can reveal different crop types from space.
Jean-Pierre Florens of the Social Sciences University in Toulouse has now used a technique called game theory analysis to assess the Commission鈥檚 strategy. Game theory models situations where there are several strategies available and the players in the game鈥攊n this case, the farmers claiming subsidies and the snooping Commission officials鈥攈ave conflicting interests.
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SPOT images are expensive鈥攃osting around 拢50 per square kilometre鈥攕o the Commission currently checks on only 5 per cent of applications for subsidies to make sure they are authentic. Even for these applications it samples only 3 per cent of the farmland. Florens鈥檚 analysis shows that much more thorough monitoring is needed.
To make honesty the best policy for farmers, says Florens, the Commission should check on most if not all applications. It will also have to increase fines and increase the total area covered by the satellite images it examines. He argues that the Commission should use spotter planes to take a closer look at suspicious areas.
鈥淭he policy of the EU in trying to control fraud is totally stupid,鈥� says Florens. 鈥淭he level of fines is very low and the number of images they use is low.鈥�
A spokesman for the Commission says that there are plans to increase the use of satellite photographs in policing agricultural subsidies.