Delhi
INDIA is teetering on the brink of widespread famine, claims a study
published in the run-up to the UN鈥檚 World Food Summit in Rome next
month.
The report, In the Famine Trap, was commissioned by the Ecological
Foundation, an environmental group in Delhi, and the UK Food Group, a coalition
of development aid groups. It warns that population pressure, degradation of
arable land and India鈥檚 push to become a food exporter are undermining the
country鈥檚 food security.
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鈥淚ndia is only one or two bad monsoons away from a terrible crisis,鈥� says the
study鈥檚 author, Devinder Sharma, an independent agriculture specialist. His
report argues that India should improve its contingency plans to deal with a
failed harvest, and concentrate less on promoting food exports.
The Indian government dismisses the claims. It says that the country is more
than able to feed its population of 950 million. 鈥淭here are people who like to
indulge in overpessimism,鈥� says B. K. Taimni, special secretary in the
agriculture ministry.
India imported grain until the 鈥済reen revolution鈥� of the 1960s, when modern
agricultural technology boosted harvests. Since then production has more than
tripled. Last season鈥檚 harvest was 185 million tonnes. The government says the
country is now self-sufficient in food grains, maintains a buffer stock of about
27 million tonnes, and in recent years has been able to sell wheat and rice on
international markets.
But Sharma argues that these statistics hide worrying trends. The biggest
grain states in the northwest have reached a 鈥減lateau in productivity growth鈥�,
he says, making it unlikely that grain production can keep pace with continued
population growth. The main problem, Sharma argues, is land degradation in the
farming states of Punjab and Haryana due to poor water management. Sharma claims
that poor crop rotation patterns in these areas have also led to a decline in
soil quality. A recent World Bank study found extensive degradation over 83
million hectares of India鈥檚 agricultural land, which is reducing harvests of 11
main crops, including wheat and rice, by 4 to 6 per cent. Production of pulse
crops, which are a major source of protein, has stagnated. Farmers have also
been planting more cash crops such as sugar cane and oilseeds. Sugar cane poses
grave problems, says Sharma, because it needs heavy irrigation and takes water
away from grain crops.
According to UNICEF, just over half of India鈥檚 children under five are
malnourished, significantly more than in most sub-Saharan African countries
(This Week, 22 June, p 7). If the monsoon was to fail, warns Sharma, many
children could starve.
Taimni agrees that about 10 per cent of land in the main
grain-growing regions is degraded, and concedes that poverty contributes to
malnutrition. 鈥淧roblems of purchasing power may create pockets of food
insecurity in some areas,鈥� he says. But he insists that the annual increase in
grain production will continue.
India has just had its ninth normal monsoon, and Taimni rejects
Sharma鈥檚 dire warning that the rains are due to fail. 鈥淚n the past there have
been twenty good monsoons in a row and in this century there has never been a
total failure across the country,鈥� he says. The ministry says it has contingency
plans for sowing alternative crops in every state if the rains are late, short
or erratic. However, Sharma points out that those plans have never been tested.
鈥淭hey are only on paper,鈥� he says. 鈥淚t鈥檚 a fragile situation鈥�.
