A SERIOUS accident in the Sellafield nuclear reprocessing plant鈥檚
high-level radioactive waste tanks could require the Irish government to
evacuate half a million people from Dublin, according to a new study. In the
long-term, a severe radioactive discharge from Sellafield could cause up to 15
000 deaths from cancer in Ireland, the study says.
Peter Taylor, an environmental consultant commissioned to carry out the study
by a group of local authorities in Britain opposed to nuclear power, presented
these conclusions to the Irish government last month. But British Nuclear Fuels
(BNFL), which runs the Sellafield plant, says they are based on 鈥渁n incredible
蝉肠别苍补谤颈辞鈥�.
Taylor used a computer program, developed by the European Commission, to
investigate the impact on Ireland of a major release of radioactivity from the
21 tanks at Sellafield that together store 1250 cubic metres of liquid waste
from the British and overseas nuclear power programmes.
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To stop the waste overheating, water has to be pumped through coiled cooling
pipes in the tanks. Taylor says that if cooling is interrupted for half a day,
the waste will boil. After two days, he predicts, there would be a nuclear
鈥渕eltdown鈥� that could release 10 to 100 times as much radioactivity as the
Chernobyl accident in 1986.
In an earlier report, published in 1994, Taylor estimated that such a
disaster might require the evacuation of at least 2 million people in Britain.
He has now calculated what would happen if the wind was blowing from Cumbria
across the Irish Sea. He estimates that evacuation, healthcare and the loss of
contaminated crops would cost Ireland up to 拢50 billion over 50 years.
鈥淭his would cripple the economy of Ireland for several decades, as well as bring
untold human misery,鈥� he says.
BNFL dismisses Taylor鈥檚 conclusions, arguing that backup cooling systems
would prevent a meltdown. Peter Manning, director of waste and effluent
treatment at Sellafield, says that waste has been stored safely in the tanks
since the 1950s.
Frank Turvey, assistant chief executive of the Radiological Protection
Institute of Ireland, also believes Taylor鈥檚 worst-case scenario is unlikely. It
is 鈥渘ot impossible, but extremely improbable鈥�, he says. His institute has
calculated that the effects of such an accident could be worse than Chernobyl,
but Turvey believes no mass evacuations would be necessary. Nevertheless, Eamon
Gilmore, Irish Minister of State for the Marine, who has met with Taylor and
representatives of the local authorities which commissioned the study, describes
the work as 鈥渆xtremely important鈥�.
Taylor is due to meet officials from the British government鈥檚 Nuclear
Installations Inspectorate this week to discuss the safety of the Sellafield
waste tanks. In response to public concern following Taylor鈥檚 first study, the
NII published a report about the waste tanks last December which concluded that
they are 鈥渁cceptably safe鈥�. But it added that the design of the tanks 鈥渄oes not
meet modern standards in some respects鈥�. In particular, the NII noted that the
four oldest tanks do not have spare cooling coils.