A DANGEROUS plague of locusts may be building up in Africa and the Middle East, in part because locust-spraying has been impossible in politically unstable areas. Added to this, conditions for breeding are good this year.
The UN Food and Agriculture Organization warns that 鈥渟ubstantial infestations鈥� of locusts have been reported in northern and central Mauritania, northern Mali and Niger and the Red Sea coast of Sudan. Swarms have moved north into southwestern Morocco and southern Algeria and have crossed the Red Sea from East Africa to the coastal region of Saudi Arabia. Some 100 swarms are reported to be scattered over an area of 8500 square kilometres in the coastal plains of Saudi Arabia, with new swarms expected to form this month and move inland.
鈥淎lthough most infestations remain on a small to moderate scale, a rapid population build-up could occur, especially in the Red Sea area,鈥� says the FAO鈥檚 latest locust warning. The FAO is particularly worried about what might be happening in northern Somalia where political unrest has prevented survey teams from assessing the numbers of locusts and has ruled out spraying operations. But it says 鈥渃onditions are expected to be favourable over large areas of the northern coast as a result of widespread heavy rains鈥�.
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The FAO says that the main problem areas include the border between Sudan and Egypt where the two countries鈥� armies are active, preventing anti-locust teams from spraying. Swarms have also been reported in remote areas of Mauritania, but the terrain is so difficult it will be almost impossible to spot the swarms, says the FAO.
Keith Cressman, the FAO鈥檚 locust information and forecasting officer, believes inadequate control operations last year 鈥渃reated a lingering problem鈥�. Breeding has also been encouraged by late rainfall further north in the African Sahel than usual. 鈥淭hese are very remote areas which are hard to survey and control,鈥� says Cressman.
Jane Rosenberg, locust coordinator of the Natural Resources Institute, attached to Britain鈥檚 Overseas Development Administration, says the next few months will determine whether a full-blown plague develops. 鈥淭he situation is serious because there are a lot of locusts around and breeding conditions are favourable,鈥� she says.
Politics in disputed areas and the weather conditions will be crucial in determining whether or not a plague comes, says Cressman.